The Total Project Variances For The Critical Path Tasks

As we can see the activities a, b, e, g, k, m, q, t, v and w do not have any slack time which indicates that these activities represent the critical path. The sum of the average of each task is equals to 4.17+3.17+2.00+3.17+5.17+8.33+4.17+4.33+6.33+5.00 = 45.84 which is the expected project completion time. The total project variances for the critical path tasks are sum of individual critical path task which are 0.25+0.25+0.11+0.25+0.69+1+0.25+1+1+1 =5.81. The standard deviation is the square root of the total project variance which is 2.41. We know, if the standard deviation is larger then there is a less confidence in the estimate, meaning wider difference exist between 3 time estimate, particularly the optimistic and pessimistic estimates. The smaller standard deviations indicate confidence in the estimate, but we have large standard deviation which means the project will complete plus or minus 2.41 days. The total project completion ask is 45 days and the estimated completed time is 45.84 +2.41 = 48.25 days or 45.84-2.41 = 43.43 days. It clearly shows that the project is in trouble and likely face penalty with the estimated completion time of 48.25 days. The formula and details calculations are in the attached excel spread sheet The final calculated table shows each activity times, along with the standard deviation from each time. 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